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Redfin's four-week pending sales count fell to 299,126, the lowest in nearly three years
The count for the four weeks ending 13 September is 5.4% below a year earlier. Redfin's August monthly report puts homes for sale at 1,534,918, the most since 2020, and NAR's independent contract index was 4.7% below August 2025.
What this story establishes
- Redfin's seasonally adjusted pending sales for the four weeks ending 13 September 2026 were 299,126, down 3.5% from the prior week and 5.4% from a year earlier, the weakest since late 2023. TC Bulletin read this through Mortgage Professional America's 21 September report of Redfin's 17 September update.
- In TC Bulletin's earlier reporting the same series was 314,136 for the four weeks ending 9 August. The count has fallen 4.8% since.
- Redfin's monthly report of 9 September put August pending sales at 336,973, flat on July and down 1.3% on August 2025, and homes sold at 291,769, down 0.4% on a year earlier. Homes for sale were 1,534,918, up 3.9% on July and the highest since 2020, per Redfin.
- Metros diverged. Over the four weeks ending 13 September, pending sales were down 20.3% in Seattle, 15.0% in Denver and 14.6% in Atlanta from a year earlier, and up 6.6% in Fort Lauderdale and 4.0% in Miami.
- NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7% year over year in August and MBA's purchase index was 15% below a year earlier in the week ending 2 October, so two independent series agree on direction with Redfin.
Redfin's weekly count of signed contracts fell again in September. The four-week total ending 13 September was 299,126, seasonally adjusted, which Redfin's update of 17 September described as the lowest level in nearly three years.
Over the same four weeks Redfin put new listings at 363,298, up 1.5% on a year earlier, and active listings at 1,497,731, up 1.5%. Months of supply was 4.1, up from 3.9, which Mortgage Professional America's report describes as moving toward the four to five months economists consider balanced. NAR's own August figure was 4.9 months. The two organisations report different measures, and TC Bulletin has not reconciled them.
What Redfin's August monthly report added
Redfin's monthly report, published 9 September, counted 336,973 pending sales in August, up 0.1% on July and down 1.3% on August 2025, and 291,769 homes sold, down 0.5% on July and 0.4% on a year earlier. Total homes for sale reached 1,534,918, up 3.9% on the month and 2.7% on the year, the highest level since 2020. New listings were 393,178, up 4.3% on the year. The share of homes that sold below their original list price was 59.5%, down 1.6 points on August 2025. The monthly and four-week counts use different periods, so the monthly 336,973 is not comparable with the weekly 299,126.
Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economics research, said in the monthly release that more listings mean buyers 'can take their time, compare homes and negotiate.'
Where it fell and where it did not
The spread between the weakest and strongest of the 50 largest metros is about 27 percentage points. For a coordinator deciding whether to take on an agent, the local figure is the planning number. Redfin's list covers the 50 most populous metros only.
Two independent series agree on direction
Redfin is a brokerage owned by Rocket Companies, and its weekly figures are subject to revision, so TC Bulletin sets them beside series from other organisations. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.3% in August but was 4.7% below August 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index was 15% below a year earlier in the week ending 2 October. TC Bulletin's separate stories cover both.