/Independent trade coverage
The trade record for transaction coordinators
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The count for the four weeks ending 13 September is 5.4% below a year earlier. Redfin's August monthly report puts homes for sale at 1,534,918, the most since 2020, and NAR's independent contract index was 4.7% below August 2025.
The index is the earliest weekly read on buyer demand that a coordinator can see. MBA's deputy chief economist said rates reached their highest level in almost three years, and the three rate series published for that week differ by up to 0.21 points.
NAR's pending index rose 0.3% in August and sits 4.7% below a year earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly rate is 1.10 points above its level of a year ago, so contracts signed since early September were priced at higher rates than the August cohort.
This explainer traces how Treasury yields set mortgage rates, how rates set the monthly payment, and how the payment sets the number of contracts a coordinator sees. At Freddie Mac's 7.40%, principal and interest on a median-priced home run $252 a month above the payment at last year's rate.
TC Bulletin found no published forecast of a 10% mortgage rate. At the spread rates now carry over Treasuries, 10% would need a 10-year yield near 8%, against 5.22% on 8 October. The payment arithmetic shows how far prices would have to fall to hold volume at those rates.