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MBA's purchase applications index was 15% below a year earlier in the week ending 2 October as its 30-year rate reached 7.49%
The index is the earliest weekly read on buyer demand that a coordinator can see. MBA's deputy chief economist said rates reached their highest level in almost three years, and the three rate series published for that week differ by up to 0.21 points.
What this story establishes
- The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, released 7 October 2026 for the week ending 2 October, put the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 2% from the prior week and 15% below the same week a year earlier.
- The Market Composite Index fell 4.2% on the week. The Refinance Index fell 8% and was 56% below a year earlier.
- MBA's 30-year fixed conforming rate averaged 7.49%, up from 7.30% the week before. Deputy chief economist Joel Kan said rates 'moved to their highest level in almost three years last week.'
- Freddie Mac's survey gave 7.28% for the week ending 1 October and 7.40% for the week ending 8 October, so the same weeks carry different rate figures depending on the survey.
- In TC Bulletin's 19 August reporting, the MBA purchase index cited by Redfin was down 1% year over year. By the week ending 2 October it was down 15%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly mortgage applications survey on 7 October 2026 for the week ending 2 October. Purchase applications fell 2% from the week before and stood 15% below the same week of 2025. It is the most recent weekly figure TC Bulletin could find on buyer demand.
Kan said in the release that 'Very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance at these rates.'
Where the index sits among the other series
NAR states its Pending Home Sales Index leads closings by a month or two. No source TC Bulletin reviewed states how many weeks MBA's purchase index leads closings, so this story does not give a lead time. What the index offers is timeliness: it is weekly and arrives the following Wednesday.
The year-over-year comparison has widened. TC Bulletin's 19 August story cited the MBA purchase index, as reported by Redfin, as 1% below a year earlier. By the week ending 2 October it was 15% below. NAR's August pending index, released 17 September, was 4.7% below August 2025, and Redfin's four-week pending count for the period ending 13 September was 5.4% below. The applications figure is the weakest of the three. That is consistent with the rate having risen after most of August's contracts were signed, though it is TC Bulletin's inference and not a finding of any of the three organisations.
Three rate figures for the same week
The three series use different samples and days, and TC Bulletin has not reviewed their methods. A coordinator quoting a rate to an agent or client should name the series. Freddie Mac's figure is the one NAR cites in its monthly reports.