# Existing-home sales fell 2.0% to 3.98 million in August and the 30-year rate has since reached 7.40% > NAR's pending index rose 0.3% in August and sits 4.7% below a year earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly rate is 1.10 points above its level of a year ago, so contracts signed since early September were priced at higher rates than the August cohort. **Section:** The Desk **Published:** October 11, 2026 **Byline:** TC Bulletin Staff **Canonical URL:** https://tcbulletin.com/desk/existing-home-sales-fall-3-98-million-august-rate-7-40-percent **Publisher:** TC Bulletin (tcbulletin.com) ## Key points - NAR reported on 10 September 2026 that existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, 1.2% below August 2025 and the first reading under 4.0 million since June 2025. Sales are still up 1.6% for the first eight months of the year. - Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% from a year earlier, which is 4.9 months of supply against 4.6 in July. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% year over year, the 38th consecutive month of annual gains. - NAR's Pending Home Sales Index, released 17 September, rose 0.3% in August and fell 4.7% from August 2025. The South rose 2.3% and the West 3.0% on the month, while the Northeast fell 4.2% and the Midwest 1.6%. All four regions are below a year earlier. - Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40% for the week ending 8 October 2026, up from 7.28% the week before and 6.30% a year earlier. Fox Business reported it as the seventh straight weekly rise. NAR cited Freddie Mac's August average as 6.67%. - In August, first-time buyers were 30% of NAR's transactions, cash buyers 27% and investors or second-home buyers 15%. --- NAR reported on 10 September 2026 that existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. It was the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025, and it followed a July in which TC Bulletin's earlier reporting put pending contracts at their lowest level since January. ### Existing-home sales, August 2026 | Measure | Value | Note | | --- | --- | --- | | Sales rate | 3.98 million | Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Down 2.0% on July, down 1.2% on August 2025 | | Year to date | +1.6% | First eight months of 2026 against the same months of 2025 | | Inventory | 1.62 million | Up 3.2% on July and 5.9% on a year earlier. First time above 1.6 million since November 2019, per NAR | | Months of supply | 4.9 | 4.6 in July and in August 2025. NAR calls it the highest in more than ten years | | Median price | $429,100 | Up 1.6% on August 2025, the 38th straight month of annual gains | | Median days on market | 31 | 29 in July, 31 in August 2025 | By region, the Northeast fell 4.0% on the month to 480,000, the Midwest 3.1% to 940,000 and the South 1.6% to 1.84 million. The West was unchanged at 720,000. Against August 2025 the West is down 2.7%, the Northeast 2.0%, the Midwest 2.1%, and the South is flat. NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun tied the decline to borrowing costs, saying 'Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions.' He also pointed to job and wage growth as support for demand and said the larger inventory is giving buyers 'better opportunities to negotiate.' ## What the contract series said about August The Pending Home Sales Index counts signed contracts, which NAR's methodology says lead closings by a month or two. NAR released the August figure on 17 September 2026: contract signings rose 0.3% from July and fell 4.7% from August 2025. The release page did not state an index level, so this story does not give one. ### Pending home sales by region, August 2026 | Measure | Value | Note | | --- | --- | --- | | Northeast | -4.2% MoM | -3.9% year over year | | Midwest | -1.6% MoM | -4.9% year over year | | South | +2.3% MoM | -3.8% year over year | | West | +3.0% MoM | -6.7% year over year, the largest annual decline | Yun said buyers 'steadily entered into contracts in August even though mortgage rates increased' and described the market as 'still sluggish, with contract signings below last year.' He added that nationally, contract signings are running roughly 30% below where they were in the years before the pandemic, and that transaction activity peaked in 2021 when mortgage rates fell to near 3%. ## The rate moved after the August contracts Most of August's contracts were written at rates close to the August average. The weekly series since then shows a steady climb. ### Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average, 2026 - **Week ending 9 August**: 6.69%, which Redfin called the highest in over a year. - **August average**: 6.67%, as cited by NAR in its August report. - **Week through 2 September**: 6.71%, as cited by Wolf Street from Freddie Mac data. - **Week ending 1 October**: 7.28%, the figure Freddie Mac gave as the prior week in its 8 October release. - **Week ending 8 October**: 7.40%, against 6.30% a year earlier. The rate has risen 0.73 points since the August average. TC Bulletin's explainer on what sets the rate is published alongside this story. ## What the sequence implies for the next closings Two inferences follow from NAR's published lead time, and both are TC Bulletin's reading rather than NAR's forecast. First, contracts signed in July and August are what close in September and October, and the August index was close to flat on July, so October closings would be expected near the August level. Second, contracts signed from September onward were priced at 6.71% and higher, and they close in November and December. The index covering those contracts had not appeared in the NAR newsroom when this story was written. > **Fall-through is the other number to carry.** Redfin put the share of July agreements that fell out of contract at 14%, the highest since 2023. TC Bulletin has not found a later published figure. ### Primary sources for this story - [NAR, Existing-Home Sales report for August 2026](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august): Released 10 September 2026. Sales, inventory, prices, regional detail, buyer shares - [NAR, Pending Home Sales report for August 2026](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-0-point-3-percent-increase-in-august): Released 17 September 2026. Monthly and annual changes by region, Yun comments - [Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms): 30-year fixed average of 7.40% for 8 October 2026, 7.28% prior week, 6.30% a year ago - [Fox Business, mortgage rates for 8 October 2026](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-10-8-2026): Reports the seventh straight weekly rise - [TC Bulletin on July's pending home sales](https://tcbulletin.com/desk/pending-home-sales-fell-2-3-percent-july-2026) - [TC Bulletin on what sets the mortgage rate](https://tcbulletin.com/desk/mortgage-rates-follow-ten-year-treasury-yield-5-22-percent-october-8) --- ## Sources cited - NAR Existing-Home Sales, August 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august - NAR Pending Home Sales, August 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-0-point-3-percent-increase-in-august - Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms Topics: market-volume, mortgage-rates TC Bulletin publishes independent trade coverage of the transaction coordination profession. 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